The Viral Claim: Breaking Down the 20% Steel Figure

The claim that sparked the LinkedIn debate came from Manar Al Moneef, NEOM’s Chief Investment Officer, speaking at the Global Logistics Forum in Riyadh: “We are 20 percent of the global steel market.” This statement was widely reported across multiple news outlets including Newsweek, GreekReporter, and specialized industry publications.

The Official Statement Context

Al Moneef’s full quote provided additional context: “We are 20 percent of the global steel market. If you look at our demand in elevators, cement, and so on… Put simply, NEOM is going to be the largest customer over the next few decades.”

Several key details emerge from the complete statement:

• Timeframe ambiguity: “Over the next few decades” suggests this isn’t annual consumption but cumulative over the project timeline
• Broader material scope: Steel is mentioned alongside elevators, cement, and other construction materials
• Future tense: “Going to be” indicates projected demand, not current consumption
• Market vs. Production: “Global steel market” could refer to available market supply rather than total production

Media Interpretation and Amplification

The statement underwent significant interpretation as it spread through media channels:

Mathematical Reality Check: Does the Math Add Up?

One LinkedIn commenter, Robert Flaechsig, provided a detailed mathematical challenge to the 20% claim that deserves careful examination. His analysis represents the type of scrutiny that megaproject announcements should receive.

Global Steel Production Baseline

According to the World Steel Association, global crude steel production in 2024 totaled 1.88 billion tonnes. If NEOM truly consumed 20% annually, this would represent approximately 376 million tonnes per year—a staggering figure that exceeds the total annual production of most major steel-producing countries.

Market Reality Indicators

Several market indicators contradict the notion of massive current steel consumption:

Steel Prices and Supply: Global steel prices have faced downward pressure in 2024-2025, with Chinese producers urged to cut output to halt price declines. If NEOM were truly consuming 20% of global production, this would create significant upward price pressure.

Saudi Market Context: Saudi cement sales totaled approximately 14.9 million tonnes in Q4-2024 and 13.4 million tonnes in Q1-2025 for all projects nationwide. NEOM represents a significant portion of this demand, but even assuming 50% allocation, this suggests more modest construction scale than the steel figures imply.

NEOM Project Scaling: Reports indicate NEOM’s near-term scope has been scaled back from original announcements, with initial phases focusing on smaller segments rather than the full 170km Line initially proposed.

Alternative Interpretations

Given the mathematical challenges with the literal interpretation, several alternative explanations emerge:

• Cumulative Over Project Lifetime: 20% of steel market over the complete 20-30 year project timeline, not annually
• Available Market Share: 20% of internationally tradeable steel, not total global production
• Peak Construction Periods: 20% consumption during specific high-intensity construction phases, not sustained rates
• All Materials Combined: Steel consumption as part of broader 20% claim covering all construction materials
• Aspirational Projecting: Future demand projections based on maximum project scope rather than current consumption

Environmental Paradox: Green Vision vs. Resource Reality

The LinkedIn discussion generated strong reactions about NEOM’s environmental claims. Comments like “This isn’t a real green city then!” and “Waste of resources and environmental damage” reflect genuine concerns about the contradiction between sustainability goals and massive resource consumption.

The Green City Marketing vs. Reality

NEOM is consistently marketed as a “green,” “sustainable,” and “carbon-neutral” development. However, the environmental impact of its construction phase presents significant challenges to these claims:

*Conservative estimates based on typical megaproject ratios

Putting the Numbers in Context

To understand the scale of these emissions, consider these comparisons:

• National Comparison: 400-700 million tonnes CO2 exceeds the annual emissions of most countries, roughly equivalent to Germany’s total annual emissions
• Operational Offset Timeline: Even if NEOM operates at net-zero emissions, it would take 20-30 years of carbon-neutral operation to offset the construction phase emissions
• Global Impact: The construction emissions alone would represent approximately 1-2% of global annual CO2 emissions concentrated in a single project

The “Future Green” Argument

NEOM proponents argue that the massive upfront environmental cost will be justified by long-term benefits:

Renewable Energy Infrastructure: The project plans extensive solar and wind power generation that could theoretically power the city and export clean energy to surrounding regions.

Urban Density Benefits: Concentrating population in a compact, efficient city could reduce per-capita emissions compared to sprawling traditional development.

Technology Innovation: NEOM positions itself as a testbed for green technologies that could be scaled globally.

Desert Land Use: Building in previously undeveloped desert areas avoids displacing existing ecosystems or agricultural land.

Critical Environmental Questions

Several LinkedIn commenters raised important questions that remain unanswered:

Global Supply Chain Impact: Winners and Losers

Regardless of the exact percentage, NEOM’s steel consumption will create ripple effects throughout global supply chains. The LinkedIn discussion included comments from steel industry professionals and supply chain experts who understand these implications firsthand.

Primary Steel Markets Impact

NEOM’s steel procurement strategies will significantly impact major producing regions:

China’s Dominance: As the world’s largest steel producer (1.02 billion tonnes in 2024), China is positioned to benefit most from NEOM’s demand. However, Chinese steel producers are currently dealing with overcapacity and price pressures, making NEOM a valuable demand source.

Regional Suppliers: Middle Eastern steel producers like Emirates Steel and Qatar Steel may capture premium pricing due to logistics advantages and regional preference policies.

Specialty Steel Markets: High-grade construction steel and specialized alloys for NEOM’s advanced building systems will create opportunities for premium suppliers globally.

Logistics and Transportation Challenges

One LinkedIn commenter noted the broader logistics implications: “5% of the global logistics market.” This creates cascading effects:

Quality Control and Standards Challenges

LinkedIn commenter M. Karim Salama raised critical quality management concerns: “Quality control across multiple global suppliers” becomes exponentially complex when sourcing at NEOM’s scale.

Multi-Source Complexity: Ensuring consistent steel quality across dozens of global suppliers requires unprecedented coordination and testing protocols.

Certification and Standards: Different national steel standards must be harmonized to meet NEOM’s construction requirements.

Traceability Systems: Tracking millions of tonnes of steel from multiple sources through complex supply chains demands sophisticated digital systems.

Economic Winners and Losers

NEOM’s massive demand creates clear winners and losers across the global steel ecosystem:

Winners:

• Major steel producers with excess capacity (particularly Chinese mills)
• Shipping companies specializing in dry bulk cargo
• Regional steel processors and service centers
• Quality inspection and certification companies
• Specialized logistics and heavy transport providers

Potential Losers:

• Other major construction projects competing for the same steel sources
• Smaller steel consumers facing potential price increases
• Non-Saudi construction markets experiencing supply constraints
• Traditional steel trading patterns disrupted by NEOM’s direct procurement

Historical Context: Megaproject Track Record

LinkedIn commenters expressed skepticism about megaprojects in general, with remarks like “huge utopian planned cities seldom turn out well” and “usually they turn out to be monumental disasters from the commercial perspective.” This skepticism deserves historical analysis.

Megaproject Success vs. Failure Patterns

Historical analysis of megaprojects reveals mixed outcomes, with success often depending on specific factors:

Resource Consumption Precedents

Other massive construction projects provide context for NEOM’s resource claims:

Three Gorges Dam (China): Used approximately 16.4 million cubic meters of concrete and 463,000 tonnes of steel over 17 years of construction. While massive, this pales compared to NEOM’s claimed requirements.

Interstate Highway System (USA): Consumed enormous quantities of steel and concrete over 35 years, but spread across the entire continental United States rather than concentrated in one location.

Dubai Construction Boom (2000-2010): Transformed Dubai’s skyline but represented incremental development over time rather than a single concentrated megaproject.

NEOM’s Unique Challenges

NEOM faces several unprecedented challenges that distinguish it from historical megaprojects:

• Scale and Speed: Attempting to build a city for 9 million people in 20-30 years in previously undeveloped desert
• Linear Design: The 170km linear city concept has no successful historical precedent at this scale
• Technology Integration: Promises extensive AI, automation, and smart city technologies that remain largely theoretical
• Climate Extremes: Desert environment presents extreme challenges for construction, logistics, and ongoing operations
• Population Attraction: Must convince 9 million people to relocate to a purpose-built city in a remote location

Beyond Steel: The Complete Resource Picture

While steel consumption captured headlines, LinkedIn commenters noted that NEOM’s resource appetite extends far beyond steel. Jack Ambler commented, “Wait till they come to wire it and see the amount of copper they are going to need,” highlighting the broader material implications.

Critical Materials Beyond Steel

NEOM’s construction will require massive quantities of numerous strategic materials:

Water: The Critical Resource Challenge

LinkedIn commenter Charles Thomas raised the crucial question: “I’m curious about how they will supply water.” This represents perhaps NEOM’s greatest resource challenge:

Water Demand Estimates: A city of 9 million people in a desert climate could require 2-4 billion liters of water daily, including industrial, cooling, and domestic uses.

Desalination Requirements: Meeting this demand would require massive desalination capacity, potentially 10-20 large-scale plants, each requiring significant energy input.

Environmental Impact: Desalination produces concentrated brine waste that must be managed without damaging Red Sea marine ecosystems.

Energy Infrastructure Paradox

NEOM promises renewable energy operation but faces massive energy requirements during construction:

• Construction Energy: Steel production, cement manufacturing, and heavy construction equipment will require enormous energy input
• Material Processing: On-site material processing and fabrication facilities will need reliable power sources
• Logistics Energy: Moving millions of tonnes of materials requires significant diesel fuel for transportation
• Temporary Infrastructure: Construction camps, offices, and temporary facilities need immediate power solutions

Future Materials Innovation

LinkedIn commenter Lewis Wargo suggested that “within 2-3 years a new material in development will make steel obsolete.” While this timeline seems optimistic, material innovation could impact NEOM’s later phases:

Advanced Composites: Carbon fiber and other composite materials could reduce steel requirements for certain applications, though at significantly higher costs.

3D Printing Materials: Large-scale construction 3D printing might use alternative materials, though this technology remains unproven at building scale.

Engineered Timber: Cross-laminated timber and other engineered wood products could substitute for steel in some applications, though desert climate poses challenges.

Recycled Materials: Advanced recycling technologies might allow greater use of recycled content, though this doesn’t eliminate the need for primary materials at NEOM’s scale.

Investment Reality: What This Means for Real Estate Markets

Beyond the engineering marvel and environmental debates, NEOM’s massive resource consumption has real implications for global real estate investment markets and regional development patterns.

Saudi Real Estate Market Impact

NEOM’s development creates both opportunities and challenges for Saudi Arabia real estate investment:

Construction Industry Boom: Massive demand for construction services, equipment, and skilled labor creates opportunities throughout Saudi Arabia’s construction sector.

Regional Development: NEOM’s infrastructure investments benefit the broader Tabuk region, potentially creating spillover real estate opportunities in nearby areas.

Labor Market Effects: The project’s workforce requirements could drive residential demand in Saudi Arabia’s established cities as workers commute or relocate.

Competition for Resources: Other Saudi real estate projects may face increased costs and material availability challenges as NEOM consumes significant supplies.

Global Construction Cost Implications

NEOM’s material consumption could affect construction costs worldwide:

Investment Strategy Implications

For real estate investors considering exposure to NEOM-related opportunities, several strategies emerge:

Indirect Exposure: Rather than betting on NEOM’s direct success, investors might consider companies and regions benefiting from its construction demand.

Supply Chain Investments: Steel producers, construction equipment manufacturers, and logistics companies may offer more liquid investment opportunities than direct real estate exposure.

Regional Development: Existing Saudi cities and nearby markets might benefit from NEOM’s economic impact without the project-specific risks.

Technology Adoption: Construction technology and smart building systems developed for NEOM could find broader application, creating investment opportunities in related sectors.

Risk Assessment for Investors

The LinkedIn discussion revealed several investor concerns that deserve consideration:

• Execution Risk: No project of NEOM’s scale has been successfully completed, creating uncertainty about timeline and costs
• Market Demand: Whether 9 million people will actually want to live in a desert linear city remains unproven
• Political Risk: Changes in Saudi leadership or priorities could affect project continuation
• Environmental Backlash: Growing criticism of the project’s environmental impact could affect its social license to operate
• Economic Cycles: Oil price volatility or global economic downturns could impact project funding

Conclusion: Beyond the Headlines

The viral LinkedIn debate about NEOM’s steel consumption reveals how megaproject claims can capture imagination while raising serious questions about feasibility, environmental impact, and resource allocation. While the exact percentage of global steel consumption remains disputed, there’s no question that NEOM represents an unprecedented construction undertaking with far-reaching implications.

The mathematical challenges to the “20% of global steel” claim highlight the importance of scrutinizing promotional statements from major projects. Whether the true figure is 20%, 5%, or even 1%, the scale remains massive and worthy of serious analysis rather than accepting marketing claims at face value.

The environmental paradox—building a “green city” through massive resource consumption—reflects broader challenges facing sustainable development in an era of climate change. NEOM’s planners must address these contradictions transparently if they want to maintain credibility with increasingly environmentally conscious investors and residents.

For investors and construction industry professionals, NEOM’s development creates both opportunities and challenges that extend far beyond Saudi Arabia’s borders. Supply chain impacts, material cost effects, and competition for skilled labor will influence global construction markets regardless of NEOM’s ultimate success.

The LinkedIn discussion demonstrated the value of professional skepticism and collaborative analysis when evaluating megaproject claims. Rather than accepting promotional statements or dismissing ambitious projects outright, the construction and real estate communities benefit from rigorous examination that considers both possibilities and limitations.

As NEOM’s construction continues, tracking actual resource consumption against claimed figures will provide valuable lessons for future megaprojects and help separate engineering reality from marketing hyperbole. The project’s success or failure will influence how similar initiatives are planned, funded, and executed worldwide.