JULY 2025 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS – $50M INVESTMENT DECISION

• EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
• Investment Decision: Deploy $___M in _____ timeframe
• Primary Strategy: ________________________________
• Target Property Types: ________________________________
• Geographic Focus: ________________________________
• Key Economic Driver: ________________________________
• GDP ANALYSIS & MARKET CYCLE ASSESSMENT:
• Current GDP Position:
• – Q1 2025: -0.5% (contraction)
• – Q2 2025: +2.6% estimate (rebound)
• – 2025 projection: 1.4% (below trend)
• – Economic cycle position: ________________________________
• GDP Component Analysis:
• Consumer Spending (70% of GDP):
• – Current status: ________________________________
• – Real estate impact: ________________________________
• – Forward outlook: ________________________________
• Business Investment (18% of GDP):
• – Current status: Declining significantly
• – Real estate impact: ________________________________
• – Forward outlook: ________________________________
• Government Spending (17% of GDP):
• – Current status: ________________________________
• – Real estate impact: ________________________________
• – Forward outlook: ________________________________
• Net Exports (-5% currently):
• – Tariff impact: ________________________________
• – Trade deficit trend: ________________________________
• – Real estate implications: ________________________________
• Market Cycle Assessment:
• – Current phase: _____ cycle (expansion/peak/contraction/recovery)
• – Time in current phase: _____ months
• – Expected duration: _____ months remaining
• – Next phase timing: ________________________________
• – Real estate cycle lag: _____ months behind economic cycle
• GDP Scenario Analysis:
• Baseline Scenario (50% probability):
• – GDP growth: ____% (2025), ____% (2026)
• – Real estate impact: ________________________________
• Recession Scenario (35% probability):
• – GDP growth: ____% (2025), ____% (2026)
• – Real estate impact: ________________________________
• Upside Scenario (15% probability):
• – GDP growth: ____% (2025), ____% (2026)
• – Real estate impact: ________________________________
• EMPLOYMENT DATA INTERPRETATION:
• Current Employment Metrics:
• – Unemployment rate: 4.1% (June 2025)
• – Job growth: 147k (June), trending toward ___k/month
• – Labor participation: 62.3% (declining/stable/rising)
• – Long-term unemployed: 23.3% (concerning/normal)
• Sector Employment Analysis:
• Healthcare & Social Assistance:
• – Growth: +39k jobs (June 2025)
• – Real estate impact: ________________________________
• – Investment opportunity: ________________________________
• Government Employment:
• – Growth: +73k total (+40k education)
• – Real estate impact: ________________________________
• – Investment opportunity: ________________________________
• Construction Employment:
• – Growth: +15k jobs
• – Supply impact: ________________________________
• – Cost implications: ________________________________
• Manufacturing Employment:
• – Change: -7k jobs
• – Regional variations: ________________________________
• – Industrial real estate impact: ________________________________
• Wage Growth Analysis:
• – Average hourly earnings growth: 3.9% year-over-year
• – Real wage growth: 1.5% (inflation-adjusted)
• – Housing affordability impact: ________________________________
• – Target demographic purchasing power: ________________________________
• Employment Leading Indicators:
• – Job openings: 7.7M (1.1 per unemployed person)
• – Quits rate: 2.2% (worker confidence: low/moderate/high)
• – Initial claims: 235k weekly (stable/rising/falling)
• – Forward employment outlook: ________________________________
• INTEREST RATE & INFLATION ANALYSIS:
• Federal Reserve Policy:
• – Current fed funds rate: 4.25-4.50%
• – Duration at current level: _____ months
• – Expected 2025 changes: _____ cuts of _____ basis points
• – Timing of first cut: ________________________________
• – Terminal rate projection: ____% by end 2025
• Inflation Environment:
• – Current CPI: 2.4% (May 2025)
• – Core CPI: 2.8% (excluding food/energy)
• – Fed inflation target: 2.0%
• – Tariff impact on inflation: ________________________________
• – Fed projection: 3.0% peak in 2025
• Real Estate Finance Implications:
• Mortgage Rates:
• – Current 30-year fixed: _____%
• – Expected with Fed cuts: _____%
• – Buyer purchasing power impact: ________________________________
• – Refinancing activity potential: ________________________________
• Commercial Real Estate Financing:
• – Current cap rates: _____ (asset class)
• – Expected cap rate movement: ________________________________
• – Credit availability: tight/moderate/loose
• – Financing cost trend: ________________________________
• Policy Uncertainty Impact:
• – Tariff policy status: ________________________________
• – Business confidence effect: ________________________________
• – Investment decision impact: ________________________________
• – Timeline for policy clarity: ________________________________
• INVESTMENT TIMING ASSESSMENT:
• Market Timing Analysis:
• Current Market Cycle Position:
• – Residential: _____ cycle phase
• – Commercial: _____ cycle phase
• – Industrial: _____ cycle phase
• – Optimal entry timing: ________________________________
• Property Type Assessment:
• Multifamily Residential:
• – Current conditions: ________________________________
• – Economic driver impact: ________________________________
• – Investment recommendation: buy/hold/sell/avoid
• – Timing: immediate/wait ___months/avoid
• Office Properties:
• – Current conditions: ________________________________
• – Structural headwinds: ________________________________
• – Investment recommendation: buy/hold/sell/avoid
• – Specific strategy: ________________________________
• Industrial Properties:
• – Current conditions: ________________________________
• – Reshoring impact: ________________________________
• – Investment recommendation: buy/hold/sell/avoid
• – Preferred subtypes: ________________________________
• Retail Properties:
• – Current conditions: ________________________________
• – Consumer spending impact: ________________________________
• – Investment recommendation: buy/hold/sell/avoid
• – Selective opportunities: ________________________________
• Geographic Market Analysis:
• Dallas Market:
• – Economic indicators: ________________________________
• – Employment trends: ________________________________
• – Real estate conditions: ________________________________
• – Investment recommendation: ________________________________
• Phoenix Market:
• – Economic indicators: ________________________________
• – Population growth: ________________________________
• – Real estate conditions: ________________________________
• – Investment recommendation: ________________________________
• Atlanta Market:
• – Economic indicators: ________________________________
• – Business climate: ________________________________
• – Real estate conditions: ________________________________
• – Investment recommendation: ________________________________
• SCENARIO-BASED INVESTMENT STRATEGY:
• Baseline Scenario Strategy (50% probability):
• – Capital deployment: $___M in _____ timeframe
• – Property focus: ________________________________
• – Geographic allocation: ________________________________
• – Risk management: ________________________________
• Recession Scenario Strategy (35% probability):
• – Capital deployment: $___M in _____ timeframe
• – Property focus: ________________________________
• – Distressed opportunities: ________________________________
• – Cash preservation: ________________________________
• Upside Scenario Strategy (15% probability):
• – Capital deployment: $___M in _____ timeframe
• – Property focus: ________________________________
• – Leverage strategy: ________________________________
• – Growth capture: ________________________________
• PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS:
• Primary Investment Decision:
• Deploy: $___M of available $50M
• Timeline: ________________________________
• Hold in reserve: $___M for ________________________________
• Specific Allocation Recommendations:
• Property Type Allocation:
• – Multifamily: $___M (___% of deployment)
• – Industrial: $___M (___% of deployment)
• – Office: $___M (___% of deployment)
• – Retail: $___M (___% of deployment)
• – Other: $___M (___% of deployment)
• Geographic Allocation:
• – Dallas: $___M (rationale: ________________)
• – Phoenix: $___M (rationale: ________________)
• – Atlanta: $___M (rationale: ________________)
• – Other markets: $___M (specify: ________________)
• Investment Execution Strategy:
• Phase 1 (Q3 2025): $___M deployment
• – Target properties: ________________________________
• – Execution timeline: ________________________________
• Phase 2 (Q4 2025): $___M deployment
• – Target properties: ________________________________
• – Market conditions required: ________________________________
• Phase 3 (2026): $___M deployment
• – Target opportunities: ________________________________
• – Trigger events: ________________________________
• RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES:
• Economic Risk Mitigation:
• – Recession protection: ________________________________
• – Inflation hedge: ________________________________
• – Interest rate risk: ________________________________
• – Liquidity management: ________________________________
• Property-Specific Risk Management:
• – Tenant diversification requirements: ________________________________
• – Lease structure preferences: ________________________________
• – Location risk factors: ________________________________
• – Exit strategy planning: ________________________________
• Portfolio Risk Controls:
• – Maximum exposure limits: ________________________________
• – Correlation management: ________________________________
• – Stress testing scenarios: ________________________________
• – Performance monitoring: ________________________________
• MONITORING & ADJUSTMENT CRITERIA:
• Economic Indicator Triggers:
• GDP Growth:
• – Accelerate investment if: GDP growth > ____%
• – Pause investment if: GDP growth < ____%
• – Shift strategy if: ________________________________
• Employment Indicators:
• – Accelerate if: Unemployment < ____%
• – Pause if: Unemployment > ____%
• – Job growth threshold: ___k/month
• Interest Rate Triggers:
• – Fed cuts accelerate investment if: Rates drop to ____%
• – Fed hikes pause investment if: Rates rise to ____%
• – Mortgage rate threshold: ____%
• Market-Specific Triggers:
• – Cap rate movements: +/- ___bps triggers review
• – Vacancy rate thresholds: ___% triggers caution
• – Price appreciation: +/- ___% triggers adjustment
• Quarterly Review Process:
• – Economic data assessment: ________________________________
• – Portfolio performance review: ________________________________
• – Strategy adjustment protocol: ________________________________
• – Reporting requirements: ________________________________
• EXPECTED OUTCOMES & SUCCESS METRICS:
• Financial Projections:
• – Target IRR: ___% over ___-year hold period
• – Expected cash-on-cash return: ___% annually
• – Projected total return: ___% over investment period
• – Risk-adjusted return expectation: ________________________________
• Performance Benchmarks:
• – Minimum acceptable return: ___% IRR
• – Peer comparison target: Top ___% of institutional funds
• – Risk metrics: Max drawdown ___%, Sharpe ratio ___
• – Timing success: Beat market entry by ___% through cycle timing
• CONCLUSION & NEXT STEPS:
• Investment Decision Summary:
• Based on comprehensive economic analysis, recommend:
• – Immediate deployment: $___M
• – Reserved capital: $___M
• – Primary focus: ________________________________
• – Timeline: ________________________________
• Key Economic Drivers:
• 1. ________________________________
• 2. ________________________________
• 3. ________________________________
• Critical Success Factors:
• 1. ________________________________
• 2. ________________________________
• 3. ________________________________
• Immediate Action Items:
• 1. ________________________________
• 2. ________________________________
• 3. ________________________________
• 4. ________________________________
• 5. ________________________________